By John Cardillo
Huffington Post columnist Julia Craven’s attempt to highlight White-on-White crime backfired when she used murder stats that proved Blacks are almost fifteen times more likely to kill other Blacks than Whites are to kill other Whites.
Craven wrote in her Huffington Post column, “As many as 3,172 white people were killed in 2011 — and 2,630 of them lost their lives at the hands of another white person. This is compared to 2,695 black people, 2,447 of whom were killed by another black person.”
And while according to the FBI’s Unified Crime Reporting for 2011 those numbers are accurate, what do they really tell us?
In order to fully understand and utilize the data to illustrate a problem within a racial group, the FBI’s numbers must be compared against the most recent US Census data.
According to the US Census Bureau, as of 2014 Whites comprised 77.7 percent of the US population compared to 13.2 percent for blacks. By the numbers that’s 247,751,933 Whites as opposed to 42,089,131 Blacks or about six times more Whites than Blacks in the US population.
Julia Craven however ignores that critical data point and instead uses only the crime data without relation to the population. Ms. Craven notes that 2,630 Whites were killed by other Whites as opposed to 2,447 Blacks killed by other Blacks.
Craven’s math would have you believe that all things being equal, a White person is slightly more likely to kill or be killed by another White than a Black person is by another Black.
But all things are not equal.
In fact, when it comes to the racial breakdown of America’s population things are quite disproportionate. When those murder numbers are compared to population data another story emerges. That Blacks are at a much greater risk of killing or being killed by other Blacks than Whites are by other Whites.
Using both the FBI and Census Bureau data, we can conclude the probability of a White on White murder is 0.00001061545 percent as opposed to 0.00005813852 percent for Black on Black murder.
In short, at first glance Blacks are five and a half times more likely to kill or be killed by other Blacks than Whites are by other Whites.
Unfortunately, this isn’t the final number.
An analysis of the expanded FBI data tables tells us that the genders and ages of most Blacks committing murder are males between 13-64 years old.
We must then take this data and reconcile it against expanded US Census data on the US Black population to determine which percentage of the 13.2 percent US Black population is responsible for most of the murders.
According to the Census data, there are approximately 13,000,000 Black males aged 13-64 in the US population which is equivalent to about 31 percent of the total Black population, and 4.1 percent of the total US population.
Knowing this, and adjusting a generous 20 percent for female murderers, we can reasonably estimate that a Black American is approximately 14.5 times more likely to be killed by another Black than a White American is by another White.
By any standard, this is a public safety and public health epidemic, and Julia Craven’s attempt to trivialize and obfuscate it is both irresponsible and dangerous.
I recommend Julia Craven break out a calculator on her next attempt at snark.