Let’s cut through all the hyperbole, the rancor, the emotion, the anger and fear, and get down to cases regarding the 2016 presidential election.
Mitt Romney was right to point out we are at a fork in the road. Will we return to the tried and true principles contained in the Founders’ vision (the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution as originally intended), or will we embrace the vision of the Democrat Party (concentrated federal power, social justice, the French Revolution, Marxism, and surrender/retreat on the world stage)?
Another pertinent question: is Trump the man to return us to the Founders’ vision?
Another relevant question: if HRC survives the FBI investigation, will she beat Trump in November?
As we have seen in recent years, especially in the last two cycles, the majority of voters prefer the Clinton/ Obama vision. Demographically, Clinton/Obama voters have increased in number. Voters in support of the Founders’ vision have declined. Even in the face of the horrendous Obama years, and even in consideration of all the anger on the Right driving enormous voter turnout, the numbers indicate the Founders’ vision is in deep trouble.
As to whether or not Trump is the savior so many expect, polling data indicates rather strongly HRC will beat him in the general election. The same polling, an average of major polls through time, indicates any of these candidates will beat HRC: Cruz, Rubio, Kasich.
Although the argument can be made that Trump is no conservative, and he is no man of integrity, at this point, none of that matters. He is the front runner and will likely be the nominee unless we see the drama of a brokered convention.
If Trump is the inevitable nominee then the only relevant question is: can he beat HRC? The polling says no. But what about the electoral college, the real proving ground?
This interactive electoral map is a useful tool. It allows you to change states to match your projection. Even if Trump takes Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Alaska, Virginia and Florida, HRC still wins if she carries Colorado, North Carolina, South Carolina and other traditional Democrat strongholds in the West, the Midwest and the Northeast.
So if all these surveys, polls and projections indicate a high probability of a Trump defeat in the general election, then the only hope for the Founders’ vision resides with Cruz, Rubio or Kasich. For a variety of reasons, including his status as the man most like the Founders, and the most potent Trump adversary, the logical choice is Ted Cruz, especially when we’ve seen he beats Hillary as per the RCP average polling, even if the DOJ helps her escape the FBI.
If HRC is indicted, will the Dems switch horses in the middle of the stream and go with Sanders, Biden or Warren, and if so, would Cruz still be the most likely victor? If the answer to that question hinges on which Party is most unified going into November, the Founders might be left in the dust given the deep divisions existent in the GOP.
However, if the threat of four more years of the Obama/Clinton vision is sufficient motivation to help the GOP galvanize behind Cruz, then the Founders’ vision may not only survive, but expand, delivering a new era of American success and standing.