Huma had better sit Hillary down for this one. The closer we get to Election Day, the worse it gets for the Democrats.
We have covered the vast difference in rally attendance.
We’ve even covered this accurate election model that has been calling for a Trump win for months.
Now, with just days left, there is one more predictor we can look at: The Stock Market.
Few institutions have a better track record calling presidential races than the U.S. stock market. At the moment, it’s sending information that counts against Democrat Hillary Clinton.
The performance of the S&P 500 Index has signaled the outcome of every presidential election since 1984, according to an analysis by Strategas Research Partners LLC. A gain in the benchmark for American equity in the three months prior to the vote has seen the incumbent party win 86 percent of the time since 1928. Right now, the benchmark gauge is down 3.6 percent since Aug. 8 with just a week until the vote, a fact that in isolation augurs well for Donald Trump…
…Logically, the stock market’s record of prescience is derived from its sensitivity to the economy, with falling shares potentially correlating with consumer discontent that might break in favor of a challenger. While this year’s signal ranks with the weaker ones historically, it comes as growth in gross domestic product is sluggish and follows the biggest monthly retreat in consumer confidence in a year. Some analysts also wonder if Federal Reserve stimulus has made stocks a less reliable signal of economic health than they were in the past.
“People may be saying ‘I think Clinton is going to win,’ but people are not putting their money to work on the fear of a Brexit like event,” said Daniel Clifton, head of policy research at Strategas Research Partners. “The range of outcomes has been increasing in recent weeks rather than decreasing.”
…The banking sector is also the industry most closely tied to the election and favors Trump, according to analysis by Bloomberg. The S&P 500 Investment Banking and Brokerage index has rallied 13 percent in the last three months.
Read more: Bloomberg
Hey, Hillary, we hope you weren’t ‘banking’ on a win!