Some new delegate math after the Wisconsin primary:
Need 1,237 delegates to win with 839 delegates still available.
Going forward, Trump needs 57% of the remaining delegates to reach 1,237. Cruz needs 86% and Kasich needs 130%.
On April 19th, the New York primary will be held. Trump will likely win all 95 delegates, but to be safe, lets give Trump 71 delegates and Cruz 24. After that, Trump will need to win 54% of the remaining 744 delegates and Cruz will need to win 94%. Kasich will need 147%.
April 26th is doomsday for Ted Cruz.
The Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, & Rhode Island primaries are that day and they award 172 delegates that day.
Judging from the polls in those states, I don’t see how Ted Cruz wins any delegates on 4/26… but to be safe, lets say he scrounges up 18 delegates from winning a few congressional districts in CT and RI. That gives Trump 154 and Cruz 18… and maybe Kasich will win some, but it wont matter much.
After those delegates are awarded, Trump needs 44% of the 572 remaining delegates and Cruz needs 119% to reach 1,237.
At that point, Cruz is eliminated from mathematically winning the nomination and will be in the same boat as Kasich is now. That is the same point in the primary calendar 4 years ago when Mitt Romney swept the Northeast and Santorum dropped out.
I predict after that, Cruz’s support will drop off and Trump will surpass 1,300 delegates before the convention.
From Jason Browning’s Facebook page. Jason is the producer of The Dr. Gina show with Gina Loudon.
According to Bloomberg, Cruz still faces daunting math in the face of the GOP primaries:
But Cruz wakes up to a discomfiting reality Wednesday: he needs about four-fifths of remaining delegates to win the Republican presidential nomination. Even cutting into Trump’s still-large lead in the primary is a stretch as surveys show him ahead in the three most delegate-rich states yet to vote: New York, Pennsylvania, and California.
David Wasserman, an election analyst at the Cook Political Report, said Cruz’s victory bodes “well for him in Indiana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and other more culturally conservative states that have yet to vote.”
However, “Trump is likely to erase whatever poor performance he has in [Wisconsin with] a big win in New York on April 19—he could win almost all 95 delegates there,” Wasserman added.
Read more: Bloomberg