Midterms: If… Then What?

In less than a week, we will know if the Republicans keep control of the House. If they do, then What do the Democrats do? President Trump, by the time Election Day comes around, will have made over 40 campaign stops. While his name is not on any ballot, this is truly an election about both the local candidates and him, as well as what he stands for as the president.

Let’s try and figure out what could happen if the Republicans keep control of the House. The Democrats have to think seriously about who will be their sacrificial lamb in the 2020 election. Put yourself in the position of Kamala Harris: she will have to ask herself, “Do I want to run against Trump in 2020 and most likely take a shellacking, losing 49 to 1. Do I want to be labeled a ‘Loser’ for the rest of my life like Hillary, or should I pass and wait until 2024 when Trump can’t run?”

How about our Spartacus candidate, Cory Booker from New Jersey. Does he really think he can beat President Trump, or will he wind up like Walter Mondale and get destroyed 49 to 1? One thing that will be a problem for Cory, Kamala and the rest of the Democratic hopefuls is that currently, they have no agenda to run on. The president has taken the agenda away from the Democrats, and he is not likely to give it up. So Democrats, change your message to something positive for the voters, if that is possible.

I believe many of the other potential Democratic candidates will be thinking the same thing as Kamala. So then the question becomes who will be the Democrats sacrificial lamb? The answer is right in front of you, and the selection is an indication that the Democratic Party already knows the outcome of not only the midterms but also the 2020 presidential election. The leading lambs are Hillary and Uncle Joe, the last of the older generation of Democrats. The younger, further left-leaning leaders will gladly sacrifice Hillary and/or Joe to finally get rid of the moderate Democrats and take control of the party.

The big part of the If is if the Republicans can do more than just keep control of the House, but actually expand their control. If so, my prediction will come true. The critical part of this election is how the black, Hispanic, and labor voters will react to what is happening to them today. Will this affect their turnout and who will they vote for?

In the 2016 election, Trump got about 9% of the black vote, based on a Rasmussen poll. Now, 49% of blacks support what Trump is doing for them and America. On the Hispanic front, the Harvard/Harris poll reported a 10 point jump in Trump’s approval rating. The last point considers labor unions.  For them, the AFL-CIO leader Richard Trumka has offered qualified support for the president’s Trade Policy.

All three of these segments have been firmly under Democratic control for decades. With significant support for Republicans from these three groups, the outcome of the election could be devastating to the Democrats.  Why have these significant groups of people turned on the Democrats? I think the answer is that the Democrats have promised a great deal to these groups for years and, in many cases, have delivered very little. The Democrats started the war on poverty under Lyndon Johnson. Just as a reference point, the current national debt is $21 trillion and the war on poverty has cost America $22 trillion.

If the election turns out the way I expect, then Democrats will have a lot to think about. One last point, I want you to think back to November 2016 and try and remember the riots in the streets after Trump won. Now, try and imagine what the streets will look like if the Democrats don’t take back the house.

 

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