There is a world of difference between the ‘probable’ and ‘confirmed’. And that difference is coming into play with the CCP Cornavirus numbers.
Don’t take our word for it. Ask any expectant mother whose pregnancy test was ever in doubt.
When something is a clear and absolute ‘yes’ or ‘no’, you have useful information to work with. An answer of ‘probable’ may be sufficient for a criminal warrant. But it is not in any way useful in the world of hard facts and data points.
To be useful, all of the ‘probable’ results need to be further refined. Weed out those that don’t qualify to isolate those that are valid.
Then and ONLY then do you have a useful number.
Let’s head to Texas and see how this plays out in real life.
Here is the ‘probable’ in a medical context.
The Texas Department of State Health Services has seen to it that some 3,600 “probable” coronavirus cases have been removed from the state’s total positive COVID case count.
Before Thursday, the San Antonio Health Department was counting positive antigen tests in their total reported counts of positive COVID cases. The antigen tests are considered “probable,” unlike the more sensitive molecular PCR tests. —DailyWire
This caused some cities to have wildly different numbers than other places. And since spikes in numbers drive policy changes, that could be a big deal.
Since San Antonio is only one of three cities in the state to count and collect antigen tests, Texas’ health department asked for the cases to be separated out from PCR tests so the state can have cleaner comparisons by city and county.
The initial news of the drastic downgrade in total positive cases sparked theories of general over-counting of COVID tests.
“The State of Texas today had to remove 3,484 cases from its Covid-19 positive case count, because the San Antonio Health Department was reporting ‘probable’ cases for people never actually tested, as ‘confirmed’ positive cases.- TDHS (Texas Department of State Health Services),” reported Fox 4 anchor Steve Eagar.–DailyWire
It bears saying that not everyone shares this perspective. Their method was prescribed for ’emergency use’ and is thought by some to be reliable.
Pushback from San Antonio claims that this reporting should not be viewed a ‘maybe’ because of the reliability of this test combined with the presence of specific symptoms.