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There have been a number of signals that the GOP could come back with a vengeance this year, and polling projections are now lining up with those signals.
In the eyes of everyone except his most diehard fans (including the ones in the paid media) his presidency — both at home and abroad — has been an absolute dumpster fire. It isn’t just showing up in his personal approval numbers, either. We’re seeing it reflected in support (or lack thereof) of the party more generally.
After opening his piece with a range of expectations that the GOP will pick up between 15-40 house seats in November, Hot Air’s John Sexton moves into an analysis of projections on the Senate side, citing some statistics that would project a 47-48.5% vote share in November and potentially indicating a 9-point shift to the right.
That creates an obvious problem for Dems in 2022. But Sexton is looking further down the road to implications in 2024.
For comparison purposes, when Cook Political Report published its analysis of House races, they suggested the generic ballot had shifted 7 points toward the GOP since 2020. The Slow Boring analysis puts the shift at 9 points. The result of this is that Senate Democrats who won in states Biden won by less than 9 points are probably in trouble. Specifically, Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona, Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia, Sen. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire and Sen. Catherine Cortez-Masto in Nevada. (Rue Teixeira wrote and analysis of Cortez-Masto’s chances last week which I wrote about here.)
So Democrats are likely to lose 3-4 Senate seats this year and that’s just the start of their troubles. Bazelon goes on to point out that 2024 is looking ever worse for Democrats. There are six Senate seats up for reelection in 2024 in states where Biden either lost the state or won narrowly. If Democrats perform close to their historical average in that election they have a good chance of losing those six plus another two more that would be on the bubble. Again, that’s if they perform close to their average. But obviously if Democratic enthusiasm remains low then the historical average won’t save them. — HotAir
If this trend were to continue, it is not impossible to believe that 2024 could set us up for a GOP 60-seat Senate. That would put Republicans in a position where the obstruction games the Democrats perfected during Trump’s presidency would suddenly be rendered ineffective, and open the path to some real legislative change in issues that have been deadlocked for years.
That might even include immigration reform.
This doesn’t mean the Democrats are going to roll over and let the GOP have those seats. It’s still up to the local voter to get behind their candidate and push, pull, or drag them across that finish line.
What it does mean is that there’s reason for optimism, even in those so-called ‘longshot’ districts. After all, Trump showed up where he supposedly didn’t have a shot and asked that simple question: what the hell do you have to lose?
With Biden throwing wrenches into our economy, that’s even more true now than ever.
Psalms of War: Prayers That Literally Kick Ass is a collection, from the book of Psalms, regarding how David rolled in prayer. I bet you haven’t heard these read, prayed, or sung in church against our formidable enemies — and therein lies the Church’s problem. We’re not using the spiritual weapons God gave us to waylay the powers of darkness. It might be time to dust them off and offer ‘em up if you’re truly concerned about the state of Christ’s Church and of our nation.
Also included in this book, Psalms of War, are reproductions of the author’s original art from his Biblical Badass Series of oil paintings.
This is a great gift for the prayer warriors. Real. Raw. Relevant.