CANADA: One Leader ‘Gets’ The Tariff Strategy, Others Are Boarding The FAFO Train

Trump likes the tariffs because they are a direct tool HE can use in high-pressure negotiations where he feels other countries have not been working in America’s best interests.

To bring anyone up to speed on what he’s trying to accomplish, so far as Canada goes, part of the confusion comes from two different stated objectives. One objective is tied to security concerns with a border nation, the other addresses what Trump sees as unfair financial practices.

The border issue is less complicated, so let’s get that out of the way first. Canada has announced a Border Czar. But big deal. As you recall, so did Biden. Trump is taking what might be argued as a Reaganesque ‘trust but verify’ approach to Canada and the border.

Canadian leaders have talked the talk, but here is Kristi Noem making specific statements about the ‘walk the walk’ we are waiting for them to take.

If you follow the link to the video, you will find she’s making specific and clear demands about US access to law enforcement information concerning would-be border-crossers, and specific changes to tighten up the border inspection process.

As for the financial side, long before Trump ever ran for office, he was on record complaining about the trade imbalances, about jobs leaving the country, and about currency manipulation keeping the price of foreign goods artifically low. Add protectionist policies keeping American goods from competing in the other country’s markets and you’ve got a pretty good list of the concerns that have Trump annoyed with Canada.

Remember, when he went on the world stage, telling friendly countries through Europe and the Indo-Pacific that reciprocal tax rates would be assessed and set as reciprocal to foreign countries based on how well they are willing to play ball with America (potentially lowering the tariffs and non-monetary trade barriers in both countries and resulting in a freer market in each direction).

In a sense, he’s throwing the ball in the other country’s court: we have a market to which you want access, do you want it badly enough that you are willing to drop your Anti-American protectionist trade policies?

Alberta is the closest analog Canada has to Texas, rich in oil and natural resources, lots of farmers and ranchers, generally conservative-leaning (except for the cities), and is generally taken for granted by, and at odds with, all the stupid leftwing policies churned out in the national capital after being fleeced by Ottawa for their revenues. As mentioned, basically Alberta’s Texas.

The Provincial Premier understands the game Trump is playing, and cares enough about her province to get on the winning side of that equation. She’s walking a line that keeps meeting Trump’s demands and pushing back to preserve Alberta’s interests in careful tension. The provincial government made a few moves to respond — buy Canadian provisions on government contracts for example — but has come out against retaliatory tariffs:

A sensible middle ground from someone in the country being hammered by tariffs and who is expected to ‘do something’ by citizens whipped up into a froth by various state-owned, or ‘captured’ media outlets.

Of course, many other Canadians would rather treat Alberta as a sacrificial lamb, throwing a bomb into Alberta’s oil economy just to spite Trump with some higher prices.

The newly-minted replacement for Justin Trudeau, Mark Carney, is among them:

He wants to keep tariffs on ‘until Americans show us respect‘. At this rate, that’s going to be a cold day in hell, Mark.

That’s really not how this works, guys.

The Premier of Ontario (the province North of everything from Minnesota through New York State) is doubling down. He wants to put a surcharge on electricity being exported to the US. (Yes, that’s a thing. Yes, there’s a lot of it.)

First off, that surcharge will mainly hurt blue states in the North East. If Canucks want to see blue states actually rally behind Trump and rage against their liberal neighbo(u)rs to the North, that just might do it.

But really, Canada’s economy is far more dependent on Americas than vice versa. The countries are financially integrated, sure. Without Canada, America takes a step backward, adapts, and continues forward. Without America, Canada’s economy is in free-fall.

Trump is well aware of this fact. In fact, he’s using it to squeeze Canada’s politicians.

There’s an easy way and a hard way out of the situation Canadian politicians find themselves in. But the choice will ultimately be theirs to make.

At least SOME politicians have had the good sense not to immolate their own economies just to stick it to Orange Man Bad. Will cooler heads prevail?

Hard to say. These are the guys who re-elected Trudeau, after all.