“The revolution will not be televised” – Gil Scott-Heron (1970).
Depending on which side of the American political spectrum you’re looking at, Gil Scott-Heron was either hopelessly wrong or remarkably prescient.
Democrats have done a fantastic job of hiding their hard left revolution by incrementally placing it in plain sight so that the formerly extreme has become the “new norm”.
Republicans are currently experiencing something of a revolution thanks to Donald Trump, and to a lesser extent Ted Cruz. It’s available – on television, radio, social media, you name it – for all to see.
The GOP convention will be brokered.
The hints are there for all to see. It’s not just that on any given day half a dozen pundits are bringing up a brokered convention:
Mitt Romney went on the record stating that although he wasn’t going to run for the nomination on his own, if the convention “drafted” him, he’d accept.
– John Kasich, following Romney’s lead, said in an interview that he thought a brokered convention could be a good and exciting thing.
– A “draft Paul Ryan” group has emerged.
– Ted Cruz went on the record in favor of a “contested” convention.
Mitt Romney, John Kasich, and Paul Ryan are all super-friendly with the GOP establishment. None are viewed in a positive light by most Conservatives(a).
Donald Trump – and similarly Ted Cruz – represent an alternative to GOP establishment shortfalls. Indeed, Republicans have been given Congressional majorities by voters and have managed to accomplish little – because the Republican establishment has stood in the way. Thanks to Barack Obama, never before has an opposition political party been afforded so many opportunities to speak truth to power and instead has chosen to remain silent.
There are reasons for their silence:
Inside the I-495 loop otherwise known as “the beltway”, there are cliques and a pecking order. To behave contrary to those is no different than being the nerdy kid in high school. Invitations to the coolest parties and social events dry up as do various assignments within the Congressional structure. In other words, if one doesn’t play the cool kid game on the Hill, one doesn’t get to be one of the cool kids on the Hill.
– There’s a lot of money to be made by constantly running against something. Democrats have perfected it. Any given Democrat can simply shout “racism”, “income inequality”, or “single-payer”, and instantly be awash in more campaign monies than any Socialist could ever dream of. Republicans are starting to learn the art of running against, but not doing anything about, something.
As primaries and caucuses shake out, expect a quiet move within the RNC to repeal Rule 40(b) because right now, if Rule 40 remains in place, Donald Trump is the only candidate that can appear for nomination at the Republican Convention. That’s too much for the establishment to take.
Expect a brokered convention despite the historical track record for brokered conventions:
The last Republican Presidential candidate to emerge from a brokered convention was Thomas Dewey in 1948.
– The last Democratic Presidential candidate to emerge from a brokered convention was Adlai Stevenson in 1952.
(a) Unlike the left where every Democrat is a Socialist, not every Republican is a Conservative.
(b) Rule 40 states that for a nominee to be considered at the Republican Convention, he or she must have a majority of delegates from eight states.