Has The Entire Approach To ‘Flatten The Curve’ Been Based On The WRONG Model?

Written by K. Walker on March 27, 2020

Some experts think so and the arguments are pretty compelling.

Professor Neil Ferguson’s Imperial College London Model studying the spread of the coronavirus hasn’t been very accurate. Unfortunately, this was the model that has led to self-isolation and “social distancing” policies by state and local governments. The economy is staggering, jobs have been lost, children aren’t in school, and the people who can work are doing so from home.

Dr. Birx had the panic-peddlers in the media who have been tirelessly pushing disastrous “pandemic porn” just to own Trump nearly apoplectic when she cautioned on relying on inaccurate models to determine the impact of coronavirus.

She’s not the only one talking about inaccurate models.

On March 23, Dr. Michael Levitt, 2014 Nobel Laureate, wrote that coronavirus will be over much sooner than was thought. He used the Diamond Princess cruise ship as an example.

The Diamond Princess was the worst case scenario, according to Levitt. “If you compare the ship to a country—we are talking 250,000 people crowded into one square kilometer, which is horribly crowded. It is four times the crowding in Hong Kong. It is as if the entire Isaeli population was crammed into 30 square kilometers.” Furthermore, he said, the ship had a central air conditioning and heating system and a communal dining room. “Those are extremely comfortable conditions for the virus and still, only 20% were infected. It is a lot, but pretty similar to the infection rate of the common flu.”

As with the flu, most of those dying as a result of coronavirus are over 70 years old, Levitt said. “It is a known fact that the flu mostly kills the elderly—around three-quarters of flu mortalities are people over 65.” To put things in proportion: “there are years when flu is raging, like in the U.S. in 2017, when there were three times the regular number of mortalities. And still, we did not panic. That is my message: you need to think of corona like a severe flu. It is four to eight times as strong as a common flu, and yet, most people will remain healthy and humanity will survive.”

Source: CTech

On March 24, Oxford University epidemiologist, Sunetra Gupta, wrote the article on why Dr. Neil Ferguson’s Imperial University of London’s doomsday model was way off.

Professor Gupta’s team at Oxford created a model suggesting that the virus had been spreading in the UK for at least a month earlier than expected. If that’s the case, then as many as half of the population in the UK had already been exposed to COVID-19 with most cases resolving themselves and not requiring hospitalization. If that’s accurate and the same is presumably true in the U.S., then “herd immunity” could kick in and dramatically lower the death rate from Dr. Ferguson’s model.

“The modelling brings back into focus ‘herd immunity’, the idea that the virus will stop spreading when enough people have become resistant to it because they have already been infected.”

While the notion of “herd immunity” has been essentially dropped in U.K. policy making, “the Oxford results would mean the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months.”

The Financial Times emphasized: “If the findings are confirmed by testing, then the current restrictions could be removed much sooner than ministers have indicated.”

“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta criticized.

Source: Daily Wire

Dr. Hotze, who appeared on a couple of Warriors & Wildmen episodes, has been saying this very thing from the get-go.

He says that we need to develop herd immunity and the separation and social distancing prevents that from happening, which can lead to a second round of this viral infection. The immune system has to come in contact with germs in order to strengthen itself.

It looks like George Carlin was right with his analysis of germs.

Check out Doug & Rich’s first podcast convo with Dr. Hotze:

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ClashDaily's Associate Editor since August 2016. Self-described political junkie, anti-Third Wave Feminist, and a nightmare to the 'intersectional' crowd. Mrs. Walker has taken a stand against 'white privilege' education in public schools. She's also an amateur Playwright, occasional Drama teacher, and staunch defender of the Oxford comma. Follow her humble musings on Twitter: @TheMrsKnowItAll

 

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