Pigskin Pundit’s Picks: Conference Championships 2026

What an exciting week the Divvies were!  I dropped to a paltry 75% correct, with Buffalo getting defeated by the players in the black and white stripes in OT on a bogus call.  Sorry, but when a receiver catches a ball (no bobble) and hits the ground with it, play over – tie goes to the runner.  No ripping it out by the defender when both are prostrate, because the play…..is….over.  The NFL is more ambiguous today about what is a catch than they were 25 years ago.  It’s a crying shame when the Raiders make more forward progress than the NFL rules committee, just saying.  Same goes for pass interference, where the Patriots were penalized several times for light hand checks while Houston DB Lassiter repeatedly and flagrantly mauled Diggs and Boutte on several routes where he was wrapped around them like an amorous octopus FOR 20 YARDS, and Houston receiver Hutchinson on one play literally hard-shoved Christian Gonzales 6 feet away from him to create space for a catch – flagrant offensive pass interference.  Ray Charles could have made that call…but the refs didn’t.  It ain’t whining if it’s true.  Anyway, let’s get to the picks.

PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS

OFFENSE
The Patriots average 5 more points per game than Bo Nix’s offense…and this isn’t Bo Nix’s offense.  I’m going to say I was amazed that the Pats were able to score as much as they did last week against that withering pass rush of Demeco Ryans, which never did let up.  The offensive line got exposed time after time with Maye having no time to throw, getting strip-sacked, etc, and without Rhamondre Stevenson most of the game (eyepoke).  This defense will be that and more, but it won’t be twice that, and Stevenson will be ready. He is a patient, very determined rusher whose YAC is cementing his reputation as a pile-driver.   On the other side, Jarrett Stidham the Supersub will be facing our Secondary, who true to form did suck all the air out of the stadium and forced 4 INTs from Stroud, including a Pick-6.  That stifling coverage allowed our rushers and blitzers to get home enough to rattle Stroud and get him off his game – something Houston never did to Maye.  I have a hard time envisioning a backup QB who hasn’t thrown a game pass in two years systematically slipping tackles from Barmore and Chaisson and picking apart New England d-backs for 60 minutes…or 6 minutes.  Advantage: Patriots.

DEFENSE
Everyone knows the Broncos are a roaring success on D.  They have TWICE the sacks the Pats have, which is an intense stat.  However, this is one game, and with both teams tied for INTs but I will take our Secondary over Denver’s for smothering coverage.  By the way, sacks is the ONLY major stat in which Denver is better than New England.  Just one.  If New England can establish enough running game to keep Maye upright most of the time, I don’t think we will need a high score to beat the Stidham Broncos.  Advantage: Even money.

SPECIAL TEAMS
Big Nutz Lutz hit for 87.5% of his FGs this season for the Ponies, with a long of 57 yds.  ‘Aurora’ Borregales of New England lit up the night sky at 84% with a long of 59 yds.  Marcus ‘Mother’ Jones of the Patriots is the deadliest punt returner in the NFL this season….and Denver will be punting more this Sunday than they have all year.  Advantage: Patriots.

COACHING
Sean Payton is as cagey as they come – as brilliant a strategist as he is a motivator.  There is a reason Bill Belichick preferred preseason intersquad practice games with Payton’s Saints.  When you’re good at chess, you seek a fitting opponent.  While technically Vrabel isn’t a scion of the Belichick coaching tree, he is the only coach who played under BB whom I ever saw outmaneuver him with his own tactics.  Vrabel never looks dumb or surprised, and as a motivator all you have to notice is the turnaround of these same Pats from last year’s horrible record.  Advantage: Broncos, but barely.

All five of the NFL pundits picked New England this week, although everybody called it close – because it will be.  The Broncs’ defense snorts, but the muskets retort; as Maye finds a way while P Stiddy falls short.  PATRIOTS.

RAMS AT SEAHAWKS

OFFENSE
The Rams put on an impressive display of aerial touchdowns this season….which doesn’t translate to a stat that matters much in a single game.  More importantly, look how much the Rams have struggled in the last two (road) playoff games to score points and come from behind against lowly Carolina and needing OT to reach just 20 pts and beat the Bears.  And here they are on the road again this week.  Some would call that character; others would say it bodes ill for the league’s top offense as it faces the league’s best defense.  History would say the same.  Stafford possesses the lowest passer rating under pressure in the playoffs this year (24.8), going up against the 4^th-highest pressure-rated defense.  Scary.  ‘Sybill’ Darnold has his own propensity to revert to his alter-ego Benedict Darnold, betraying his cool demeanor and his team by getting rattled and suddenly distributing footballs to the opposition.  All he really needs to do here is protect the football, turn Kenny Walker III loose, stay calm and manage the game while his defense strangles the road-weary Rams.  Advantage: Squawks.

DEFENSE
These teams are even in sacks and INTs, and both have a fearsome rush to pressure-cook the other signal caller.  Seattle however is the league’s top overall defense, and when I look at what LA has had to do the last two weeks to win….well, I just don’t see a three-peat here.  Advantage: Seattle.

SPECIAL TEAMS
This is too easy, and will be quite important in a close game.  The Rams fired their special teams coach after the Seattle loss, due to season-long failures.  Seattle’s 3^rd squad ranks 4^th league-wide in punt and kick returns and 1^st in punt & kickoff TDs.  We’re done here.  Advantage: Seahawks.

COACHING
McVay has put together a very good, seasoned team that is well-coached (except Special Teams).  I’m still not really sure how great a coach he is, as most of his games aren’t decided on clever plays or strategic outmaneuvering, but more on just really solid Xs & Os execution and some big playmakers (Nakua, Stafford, Kupp & Donald in years past).  Macdonald has done a nice job in Seattle since replacing Pete ‘Christmas’ Carroll, but like McVay is another smart-as-a-whip youngster.  Having said that, he did two DC stints under John Harbaugh and also coached under Jim Harbaugh, and he knows how to craft a crushing defense.  McVay owns a Superbowl ring as head coach.  Advantage: Rams.

The NFL pundits were split 3-2 favoring the Seahawks, which says more about Sam Darnold’s multiple-personality disorder than any other game factor, including Seattle’s monstrous defense.  Only Darnold can lay those doubts to rest.  He has the defense to keep him in the game long enough to find the endzone a few times…as long as it’s HIS endzone.  I think special teams is going to figure prominently as well.  ‘Hey Darnold’ finally punches his improbable ticket to the big dance, and a rematch between the Seahawks and Patriots.  Paging Malcolm Butler…..

Enjoy the games!
-PP

Nathan Clark is a conservative commentator who resides with his wife in New Hampshire. He is passionate about preserving the vision of our nation’s Founders and advancing those tried and true principles deep into America’s future. His interests range broadly from flyfishing, cooking and shooting to pro sports, gardening, live music and fine-scale modeling.