All that gloating about August polls is over… will we be adding ‘panic attacks’ to her medical chart?
Quick summary of the bad news?
Bad polls.
Bad Weekend
Key State Decline
Prediction Models.
A few of the highlights?
He began describing Hillary’s incredible vanishing lead, and her horrible weekend (‘basket of deplorables’ gaffe and health issues) hitting her numbers, he had more to say:
According to FiveThirtyEight’s famous elections prognosticator Nate Silver, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton might want to start worrying about her poll numbers, which have dropped rapidly over the last several weeks.
…And the state polling situation isn’t really any better for her. On Thursday alone, polls were released showing Clinton behind in Ohio, Iowa and Colorado—and with narrow, 3-point leads in Michigan and Virginia, two states once thought to be relatively safe for her.”
…Silver notes that it’s not just the “polls-only forecast” that’s troubling for Clinton, but the “polls-plus forecast” as well:
“Prior to the weekend, Clinton’s decline had appeared to be leveling off, with the race settling into a Clinton lead of 3 or 4 percentage points. But over the past seven days, Clinton’s win probability has declined from 70 percent to 60 percent in our polls-only forecast and by a similar amount, from 68 percent to 59 percent, in our polls-plus forecast.”
See IJR for complete story
In short, the momentum is all going Trump’s way.
No wonder Hillary’s gone negative.
