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News Clash

ELECTION ODDS: Online Betting Reacts To Biden Debate In Real Time… With Real Dollars

Unlike most polls, this metric has people putting their money where their mouth is

It’s one thing for political spin machines to give their opinion on how their favorite candidate is performing… quite another to see people putting their own money on the line.

We’ve all seen the online reactions to how Trump ragdolled the hapless, helpless and hopeless Joe Biden in last night’s debate. But there’s another question that isn’t being answered:

How did the people who drop real-world money on the outcomes of political battles react to the debate… while it was in progress?

We’ve got the screenshots.

The question being asked was the obvious one: come November, will Joe’s name still be the one at the top of the Democrat ticket?

For anyone unfamiliar with how this works, it works a lot like picking stocks. The higher the value of the price, the more confidence the ‘market’ has in that outcome.

You ‘buy in’ at a certain price. Then you can buy or sell those bets to others as you think the odds of that result become more or less likely. A shift in prices up or down represents a shift in confidence that the chance of a result is trending higher or lower. You make money not only on the outcome, but on the momentum swings in the interim.

As the moment of the debate approached, the pricing of a Joe Biden win was holding steady at about $0.85 out of a total combined value for all possible outcomes of $1.00.

That number is going to be high, obviously. Joe isn’t just the incumbent, his party kneecapped anyone who dared to run against him in the primaries. So he had the vote count needed to take his party’s nomination.

That was where things stood at the moment BEFORE the debate began.

How did the debate impact people with skin in the game?

His numbers were in free-fall.
We’ve got free-fall and candle versions of the change.

What did the debate do for betting on the 2024 election results themselves?

Trump was steady around $0.55 before the debate. By the end of it, Trump’s numbers had bumped up by five points to $0.60.

Best case scenario for Biden would be that he lost those same five points in his numbers. But the trendline that showed up was NOT the best case scenario for Team Biden. If anything, it was pretty close to worst-case.

The dark blue line shows Biden dropping from 48 cents all the way down to 29.

Gavin Newsom was worth a nickel before the debate. He popped up to 20 cents before settling down to 15 cents.

How does Joe recover from a faceplant as catastrophic as this one?

Judging by the abject panic by his supporters in print and TV media… he doesn’t.

You might almost say, ‘bet on it’.

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Wes Walker

Wes Walker is the author of "Blueprint For a Government that Doesn't Suck". He has been lighting up since its inception in July of 2012. Follow on twitter: @Republicanuck